In May 1997, Labour party candidate Tony Blair rode a wave of popular optimism into the Prime Minister’s office at 10 Downing Street, overturning a large Conservative majority in the process. Labour came into the election with 273 Members of Parliament (MPs) in comparison to the Tory’s 343. In the aftermath, Labour had 418 seats, the Conservatives 165. It was a chastening landslide defeat for John Major and the Tories, who left office for the first time since 1979.
As we fast approach the 2024 general election, may commentators expect a similarly resounding Labour triumph under leader Sir Keir Starmer. This even though the Tory majority is far greater than it was in 1997, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party holding 345 seats to Labour’s 206. With Labour out of power since 2010, most of the country seemingly wants to see political change, a fact consistently reflected in public opinion polls.
Yet whilst Blair won amid much fanfare, dragging his party towards the centre of the political spectrum in a bid to broaden its appeal, Starmer’s party looks set to win by default. The fractured, rudderless Tories simply seem unable to offer a convincing vision for the future, and have been tainted by years of infighting, malpractice and policy faux pas. Rather than storming forth imbued with positivity, Starmer’s conservative (with a small ‘c’) approach has been stunningly uninspiring. One must ask whether not being the Tories provides a strong enough mandate for effective government?
It may be tempting for Starmer and Labour to avoid making any bold proclamations or promises of radical reform, given the disarray of the Tories. But a failure to enact real change should they be elected will potentially hobble Labour’s chances in elections for years to come. In a recent Foreign Affairs article, Matthias Matthijs and Mark Blyth made the following observation:
What will ultimately put Labour in power is the dismal condition of the British economy. Voters reasonably blame the Tories, who have been in power for the last decade and a half, for this economic decline. Labour has yet to offer a credible economic plan, however. Unless Starmer is willing to commit to a more radical economic agenda, a Labour victory at the next election will just mean more trouble for the country—and could spell ruin for the party.
Attempting to take a Blairite approach by positioning his party at the political centre, Starmer may believe that he will achieve a similar result and mandate to 1997 (and subsequent electoral victories that Blair secured). Rehashing or persisting with Tory policies, however, will not hasten Britain’s economic revival. Starmer will likely enter office at a far less propitious time than Blair, when the global economy was surging and Britian remained an attractive destination for overseas investment. That is not the case now, partly because of the Tories’ bungled Brexit policies.
Starmer lacks Blair’s charisma and energy. Whilst Blair was ultimately unveiled as an immoral schemer who dragged his country to war, he was an engaging politician. The only person involved in the 2024 election that that can be said of is not Starmer. It is Nigel Farage. The ex-UKIP chief, who almost single-handedly created the conditions for Brexit, is back as leader of the Reform party, u-turning on his original decision not to stand for a seat in the House of Commons.
Despite being the leader of what is effectively a fringe party (Reform had only one MP at the dissolution of Parliament, who defected from the Tories), Farage has grabbed far more headlines in the few weeks since the election was announced than any other politician. His populist bent and ability to connect with the broader masses give him a potentially outsize role in shaping the political zeitgeist. Whilst Reform candidates will likely have most success in stealing voters from the Tories, Labour cannot expect to be immune to the appeal of the party and its leader.
Boris Johnson proved in 2019 that a right-wing populist politician could successfully win votes in historically working-class, left-leaning constituencies. With Starmer a far cry from the Labour leaders of old – despite his working-class roots – there is not a credible candidate for traditional Labour voters. Reform may take advantage of this with its anti-immigrant, pro-British stance, scaremongering in a similar fashion to its Brexit predecessors in areas where job security and prospects are low. If Farage can build momentum for his party in the next month, they could upset the applecart in large swathes of the country.
Starmer and Labour need to take advantage of their favourable political situation. Whilst they do not have a limitless pot of money to spend – and will be at pains to distance themselves from Labour misspending of old – some more ambitious policies would not go amiss. Without a convincing platform for ushering in positive change, they could find government an underwhelming and short-lived experience. If they continue to approach the election campaign in the complacent manner they have to date, the UK may even end up with a hung Parliament.
History's Shadow 