#WWIII? Unlikely but Soleimani Killing Adds Fuel to the Flames in Middle East

The US assassination of Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran’s notorious Quds Force and widely regarded as the second most influential figure in the Islamic Republic, has heightened tensions in the Middle East to a level perhaps not seen since immediately prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Thousands turned out for Soleimani’s funeral, although he was by no means universally popular in Iran

Twitter was abuzz with doom-laden predictions, one of the most frequently tagged being #WWIII. Another hashtag that trended heavily in the immediate aftermath of the assassination was #FranzFerdinand. Archduke Franz Ferdinand was the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne whose infamous murder in 1914 at the hands of Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip, set in motion the wheels of the First World War.

Whilst Donald Trump’s decision to sign off on the execution of Soleimani has understandably enraged the Iranian leadership – not to mention the oblivious Iraqis on whose soil the drone strike took place – predictions of a new global conflict are premature.

In 1914 the conditions in Europe were ripe for war between the great powers, whose possession of international colonies necessitated a translation into a global conflict. Two opposing blocs had formed between the triple entente of Britain, France and Russia, and the Central Powers of Germany and Austria-Hungary, soon to be joined by the ailing Ottoman empire and Bulgaria. These blocs in turn interfered and took sides in localised conflicts, particularly the incendiary Balkan states. If it had not been Princip’s trigger that toppled the first domino in the path to war it would have been something else.

The imperialist ambitions of Europe’s great powers ensured the crisis of 1914 mutated into a global war

Iran has vowed revenge for the killing of Soleimani but, even with its allies, it cannot launch a conventional military response to challenge the US. Indeed, such warfare has become increasingly difficult in an interconnected, interdependent world in which nuclear weapons proliferate. The geopolitical landscape has changed significantly since 1914.

True, there are still groups of enemy states backed by localised proxies, competing for regional ascendancy. One of Soleimani’s main qualities – at least according to Ayatollah Khamenei and his devoted followers – was his ability to mobilise proxy groups and states to carry out the bidding of Tehran. But the divisions of the Middle East are so intensely centralised that it is likely that any new ‘traditional’ conflict will be confined to the region.

Iran has for some time offered support to the Lebanese Hezbollah group in its struggle against Israel

This is not to say that Soleimani’s death will not have severe consequences. Iran will respond; it has to. Tehran has already further pulled back from its 2015 nuclear accord and is now likely to proceed at full speed towards nuclearisation (something it almost certainly would have done sooner rather than later in any case). It will continue to export terrorism across the Middle East and may potentially consider sponsoring an attack on the American mainland or on the territory of an American ally. Meanwhile the repercussions for Iraq, whose government may choose to expel American troops given this grave violation of its sovereignty, could lead to a new civil war and the resurgence of the Islamic State.

Trump may hold some of the arrogant delusions of his WWI predecessors who, in the words of Christopher Clark, ‘sleepwalked’ into a devastating conflict. Like them, he has proven unwilling to compromise on almost every issue, his scattergun foreign policy both terribly unsettling and fanning the flames of regional tensions whilst alienating allies.

Yet the question must be asked: how long was Iranian impunity going to be allowed to go unchecked? Tehran has exported terror and exacerbated humanitarian crises across the Middle East and further afield, all in the corrupted name of Islam. It has repressed its own people and allowed them to suffer through years of economic sanctions brought about by its rogue behaviour. A state with any moral capital left may choose to allow their anger to subside and issue a restrained response with the buy-in of the international community, the majority of which did not support the American action. This would allow Tehran to regain at least a portion of respect after years of inflammatory activity, whilst further isolating Trump.

Saudi Arabia says it was not consulted on the drone strike but has called for calm and refrained from criticising US actions

The chances of this happening, unfortunately, are zero. We may not be on the verge of World War Three. However, Donald Trump’s clumsy efforts to punish Iran for its diabolical behaviour are likely to precipitate a renewed battleground in the Middle East, where states will be forced to pick sides between the Islamic Republic and its warped Shiite goals, and the US vision of regional security, along with its steadfast backing of a Jewish state and Arab autocracy.

2020 looks set to be a bumpy ride indeed.

Wild and Wealthy: the Past and Future of the Caspian Sea

I have been advertised that the chief trade of Persia is into Syria, and so transported into the Levant Sea [Mediterranean]. The few ships upon the Caspian Seas, the want of mart and port towns, the poverty of the people and the ice, maketh that trade not.

So commented Anthony Jenkinson, intrepid representative of the English Muscovy Company during his epic journey through Russia and Central Asia in 1558-1560.

In search of new trading partners and an overland route to the wealth of China, Jenkinson’s explorations were not only a remarkable feat of adventurism but they also allowed for some of the first English-language accounts of a region still oft-overlooked thanks to their inclusion in Richard Hakluyt’s The Principal Navigations, Voyages, Traffiques and Discoveries of the English Nation.

The land encompassing the Caspian Sea – a still controversial designation for this massive landlocked body of water – rarely makes the headlines, only momentarily garnering attention for a recent agreement hashed out Aktau between Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran.

The five heads of state celebrate the deal in Aktau

After decades of dispute, the five littoral states bordering the Caspian have agreed to share its resources and work together to prevent outside powers from setting up military bases on its shores. Rich in oil and gas, it is a prudent step to douse this particular geopolitical flame.

When Jenkinson – a native of the quiet Leicestershire town of Market Harborough – travelled the region in the mid-1500s, he encountered a wild land of nomads and bandits, whose conceptions of commerce differed widely from his own ‘sophisticated’ notion.

From the Caspian Sea unto the castle of Sellizure aforesaid, and all the countries about the said sea, the people live without town or habitation in the wild fields, removing from one place to another in great companies with their cattle, whereof they have great store, as camels, horses, and sheep both tame and wild.

Yet if the Caspian of the 16th century was beyond his comprehension, imagine what the merchant would think of today’s Baku, the oil-rich capital of Azerbaijan, with its sparkling modern facades and nouveau-riche adornments.

Baku’s elite status has been confirmed by its hosting of a grand prix on the Formula 1 calendar

Not that the oil wealth of the Sea was completely unknown to Jenkinson’s contemporaries. Thomas Bannister and Jeffrey Duckett (also English traders) commented that the area was:

a strange thing to behold, for there issueth out of the ground a marvelous quantity of oil, which serveth all the country to burn in their houses. This oil is black and is called nefte. There is also by the town of Baku, another kind of oil which is white [petroleum] and very precious.

Indeed the modern petroleum industry threatens to wreak environmental disaster on the Caspian, with oil run-off and chemical disposal poisoning its waters at an alarming rate. If the five signatories do not take action soon, then the Caspian threatens to follow the Aral Sea into ecological oblivion.

Oil wells near Baku: with great wealth comes environmental responsibility

Jenkinson thought that the Aral ran into the Caspian, yet today the former is barely recognisable as a water body, its desiccated plains more reminiscent of a desert.

What was, and remains, true about his observations, however, is the ‘wildness’ of the Caspian. Beyond the oil wealth there is impoverishment and turmoil. Iran sits on the Sea’s southern border, scheming to bend the region to its will. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan remain mired in post-Soviet decay to the east, whilst to the north is the restive Russian province of Dagestan, long a source of discontent that Moscow has sought to quell.

This Astracan is the furthest hold that this Emperor of Russia hath conquered of the Tartars towards the Caspian Sea, which he keepeth very strong, sending thither every year provisions of men and victuals, and timber to build the castle.

Jenkinson could almost be writing about Vladimir Putin and his determination to ensure the loyalty of his southern lands (many Muslim-dominated), albeit substituting the castles for tanks and modern artillery.

A map based on Jenkinson’s descriptions: note the misshapen Caspian

Central Asia is imbued with huge economic and political potential, yet few seem to realise it. A massive disparity in wealth and opportunity exists between the elite and the citizenship, whose ambitions have been thwarted by dictatorial and repressive regimes.

Whether the ground-breaking achievement of this month will make a difference to the lives of ordinary citizens remains to be seen. Will the state-level sharing trickle down to the poor and needy? Without international attention, their governments may not see the immediate value in concession. A desire to protect the Caspian’s precious sturgeon population (the caviar conduit) may be a stronger incentive to clean-up the lake than the wants of those who rely on its waters for sustenance.

Successful fisherman in the Caspian Sea in 1949, before the oil boom

On his return across the Caspian from the fabled Silk Road town of Bukhara, Jenkinson and his men were buffeted by a storm during which they were:

driven far into the sea, and had much ado to keep our bark from sinking, the billow was so great: but at the last, having fair weather, we took the sun, and knowing how the land lay from us, we fell with the river Iaic, according to our desire, whereof the Tartars were very glad, fearing that we should have been driven to the coast of Persia, whose people were unto them great enemies.

With the agreement of Aktau, it should no longer matter which way the winds blow.