From Desolate Backwater to Economic Powerhouse: Hong Kong, the thorn in Beijing’s side

If there is to be a challenge to the supremacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’, it would be a good bet to suggest that its origin will be in Hong Kong.

Since being returned to Beijing in 1997, the vibrant economy at China’s southern periphery has seen its relative freedoms stifled by an increasingly interfering party apparatus, with political appointments now being vetted directly from the capital.

The erosion of Hong Kong’s political rights culminated in the Umbrella Movement in 2014, in which Joshua Wong became the face of hope for democracy in China.

Thousands poured onto the streets of Hong Kong in 2014 as part of the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement

With a GDP per capita ranked at an impressive 8th in the world, coupled with a proactive civil society fostered under British rule, it is little wonder that Hong Kong at times seems destined to pursue a development separate from the mainland.

In theory, this is exactly what should happen. When the British ceded sovereignty to China just over 20 years ago, Beijing agreed to a ‘One Country, Two Systems’ principle which would leave untouched Hong Kong’s capitalist economy and way of life for at least half-a-century. That the reality has been somewhat different only heightens the chances of serious unrest in the ‘autonomous territory’, unrest that could spread far and wide given the right political and economic climate.

All of this is a far cry from when Hong Kong was subsumed into the British imperial fold, after the conclusion of the First Opium War in 1842. At the time, Hong Kong was nothing but a ‘desolate, rocky region, frequented by pirates and a few fishermen’. (Woodhead, 1945)

This 1846 Ordnance Survey map – shortly after the British takeover – depicts the stark desolation of Kowloon, now home to the Hong Kong metropolis

Quickly becoming an important port and trading station, Hong Kong was formally leased to Britain for 99 years in 1898. This proved a propitious move for it meant that Hong Kong was freed from, to quote Sun Yat-Sen, ‘a rule of unequivocal seclusion and tyranny’ that defined the dying years of the Qing Dynasty.

The famed Chinese nationalist Sun claimed to have gained his revolutionary ideas from Hong Kong, an ‘intellectual birthplace’ separate from the ‘oppressed’ government of the mainland.

Sun Yat-Sen, often seen as the Father of modern China

Certainly the ‘rule of law, the maintenance of peace and order, and the absence of a customs tariff’ propelled Hong Kong’s development. At the 1921-22 Washington Conference – convened amongst other things to decide upon the future of the Chinese territories leased to foreign powers – Arthur Balfour of the British delegation hailed one of his country’s prized possessions:

The position of the British colony of Hong Kong in the world’s trade is unique, and without parallel. It is a free port except for a duty on wines and spirits; it has relatively few important industries; it is one of the greatest shipping centers in the world; it is the distributing point for all the enormous trade of south China, and about thirty percent of the entire foreign commerce of China. The conditions of Hong Kong in its relations to commerce are in every way excellent.

Yet by the 1930s Hong Kong was still little more than a fragment of what it was destined to become, ‘the barren pirate stronghold’ not yet eradicated. The Japanese occupation in World War Two (WWII) – following the British surrender on Christmas Day 1941 – brought with it the plunder and brutality that typified the advance of Emperor Hirohito’s zealous forces, abruptly postponing any further advancement.

Indeed, one need only look at the topographic mutilation of Hong Kong to understand its rate of progress in the second half of the 20th century. The traditional grid pattern of single-storey buildings interspersed with areas of open space has made way for a concrete metropolis, where skyscrapers tower above the choking highways, casting a shadow on the pedestrians beneath.

Left: Kowloon in 1935 (Source: NCAP) Right: Kowloon in 2017 (Google Earth)

Hong Kong’s impressive economic development was not, however, accompanied by an equal expansion of political and civic freedoms. Indeed, the British refrained from encouraging or allowing participation politics, belatedly introducing some democratic reforms only when their century-long lease was drawing to a close.

Still, compared with the communist mainland Hong Kong seemed an oasis of free expression and representation on exiting the British yoke. That the British have failed to press the CCP on honouring the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ mantra originally promulgated by Deng Xiaoping is a disappointment. It places a stain on an otherwise remarkable achievement; turning a provincial backwater into a prosperous financial centre complete with a world-famous stock exchange, in the process improving the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.

That Hong Kong’s population fought for democratic concessions from the British, and had seemingly secured them with the 1997 transfer agreement to CCP overlordship, naturally engendered optimism. This has only made Beijing’s crackdown the more frustrating, even if the most sober observer would admit an air of inevitability about the whole thing.

The return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule was marked by a lavish handover ceremony on 1st July 1997

Some have argued that there are unique set of ‘Asian Values’ that advocate order, authority and economic stability over democracy, universal rights and political representation. Even if one buys into this contentious argument, the most recent generational change in Hong Kong has raised the spectre of a new threat to the status quo, and an uplifting of the heavy boot of the CCP.

Beijing’s crackdown on ‘dissent’ continues apace. Joshua Wong has just received a second prison sentence relating to his role in the pro-democracy movement in 2014. Simultaneously, stories have emerged of the kidnapping of Gui Minhai – a dual Chinese-Swedish citizen and Hong Kong based publisher of controversial books about CCP leaders – purportedly by agents of the state.

So, the seed of Hong Kong’s autonomy is bearing decreasing quantities of fruit, and Beijing’s promise of fifty years of minimal interference apparently disregarded in its entirety.

Joshua Wong: part of a generation unwilling to defer to Beijing’s wants

The youthful, energised and well-educated generation that comprise Hong Kong’s millennials will not stand for it. For every charismatic leader that is stifled, like Joshua Wong, more are ready and willing to assume responsibility for leading the fight for the autonomy promised by both the British and Beijing.

It would be wise of the CCP not to enrage this slumbering political leviathan, otherwise a whole new type of piratical venture will be emerging from China’s southern shores.

Sources

Beeson, M. Regionalism & Globalization in East Asia: Politics, Security & Economic Development (2007)

Calder, K.E. & Fukuyama, F. (eds.), East Asian Multilateralism: Prospects for Regional Stability (2008)

Woodhead, H.G.W. ‘Shanghai and Hong Kong: a British View’ (Foreign Affairs, January 1945)

 

Advertisements

Beijing Learns from Tiananmen Square: Hong Kong protests continue to simmer

The student-led democracy protests in Hong Kong continue to cause disruption and provide a headache for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as the world watches on with interest.

Thousands rally on the streets of Hong Kong
Thousands rally on the streets of Hong Kong

Riled by the CCP’s reneging on an agreement to allow Hong Kong to select its next leader – whilst there will be a democratic vote in the 2017 election, all the candidates have been selected by Beijing – a variety of interconnected movements have embarked on the most sustained pro-democracy protests in China since Tiananmen Square in 1989.

It is unlikely, however, that the Hong Kong protests will end in a bloodbath similar to that seen in the Chinese capital in June 1989.

Firstly, Hong Kong has a democratic tradition dating from its days as a British colony, a tradition Beijing reluctantly accepts. Whereas the Tiananmen Square protests engendered a direct challenge to the Chinese political system, the Hong Kong situation is simply an extension of typical resistance to the impositions placed upon the province by Beijing. For instance, pro-democracy supporters in Hong Kong hold candlelit vigils for the victims of Tiananmen Square on the 4th June each year.

Candlelit vigil for the Tiananmen victims in Victoria Park
Candlelit vigil for the Tiananmen victims in Victoria Park

Secondly, the Hong Kong press has much greater freedom than its mainland Chinese counterpart. Whilst there have been efforts to restrict freedom of speech in Hong Kong, several liberal newspapers openly publish articles lamenting the transgressions of the central government. Chinese state media was unable to cover-up the Tiananmen Square massacre. However, the government at least used the press to justify the crackdown on the protesters to Chinese citizens, helping to prevent further eruptions of popular protest.

Thirdly, the economic consequences of the Hong Kong protests are not particularly damaging to Beijing. In 1989 China was beginning to feel the positive affects of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms. Foreign direct investment was beginning to flow into the country, eventually allowing China to become the greatest manufacturing centre in the world. The trauma caused by the Tiananmen Square protests threatened to scare away foreign investment and helped encourage the drastic response carried out by the CCP and the PLA.

China's economic revival was thrown into doubt by the vicious government response to the Tiananmen Square protests
China’s economic revival was thrown into doubt by the vicious government response to the Tiananmen Square protests

Hong Kong has a far more autonomous economy than most of China’s individual states. Striking, public disorder and violence will largely damage the financial prospects of people in Hong Kong. Beijing has enough patrons within the Hong Kong business community to ensure that those that fail to tow the party line will miss out on lucrative contracts. Employers will be scrambling to drag any of their employees in the midst of the protesters back to work to avoid future retribution against their companies.

The Hong Kong demonstrations are a test of Beijing’s confidence. So far, the CCP has responded with a media campaign and carefully-crafted rhetoric, almost feigning indifference. Whatever the differences, the Tinanmen Square massacre has taught Beijing the importance of a measured response.

Whilst the Hong Kong issue is by no means settled, it is likely that these latest protests will gradually fizzle out as people realise that Beijing will not bite and that they are better off ensuring their economic well-being rather than pursuing a political dream that the Tiananmen Square protests showed was not yet possible.