Bangladesh On the Brink: Sectarian Conflict and IS Await After More Murders

A leading LGBT activist in Bangladesh has been murdered in the latest in a worrying list of assassinations carried out by Islamist militants in the South Asian nation. Xulhaz Mannan was reportedly hacked to death for his social commentary in support of LGBT rights in a country where homosexuality remains illegal, with more than 90% of the population Muslim.

Xulhaz Mannan was the editor of Bangladesh's only LGBT magazine
Xulhaz Mannan was the editor of Bangladesh’s only LGBT magazine

Atheists, Hindus, Christians, secularists and even Shia Muslims have also been amongst a spate of victims to have fallen prey to brutal attacks during the past couple of years. The government in Dhaka, meanwhile, appears either incapable or unwilling to address this terrifying security situation, where Islamist extremists can seemingly commit murder with impunity.

The Islamic State (IS) – as is its wont these days – has claimed responsibility for this latest killing. Whilst IS involvement is certainly far from definite, the Bangladeshi government’s assertion that the terrorist group has absolutely no presence in the country is both fanciful and arrogant.

Indeed, Bangladesh is facing one of its gravest challenges since its War of Independence from Pakistan in 1971. This conflict became renowned for its indiscriminate violence, which resulted in the deaths and rapes of hundreds of thousands of civilians, displacing several million more.

Unexploded Ordnance surrounds two children during the bloody 1971 conflict
Unexploded Ordnance surrounds two children during the bloody 1971 conflict

One of the main perpetrators of what some have labelled the ‘Bangladesh Genocide’ was Jamaat-e-Islami, a radical Islamic militant group that sided with the forces of West Pakistan in trying to prevent the cession of the Bengali-majority East, the land that would subsequently become Bangladesh.

Jamaat-e-Islami retains a presence in Bangladeshi politics and social life, even if the Supreme Court declared the organisation illegal in 2013. With an aim to create an Islamic state under Sharia law, the group is a prime candidate to come under the IS umbrella and has been linked with several of the recent murders in Bangladesh. Several of its members have been indicted for war crimes committed during the 1971 atrocities, a move that prompted a murderous, rampaging reaction from the group’s supporters.

Capture
A candle light vigil demanding the execution of Jamaat-e-Islami leaders for their role in the atrocities of the 1971 War of Independence

Added to the mix is Jamiatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), a fundamentalist offshoot of Jamaat-e-Islami responsible for a coordinated 2005 bombing campaign, in addition to a slew of murders. Despite the arrest and execution of many of its leaders, rumours abound that the JMB is not finished. A further 15 to 20 Islamist militant groups may currently operate in Bangladesh.

As in Pakistan, there is a suspicion that Islamist views hold sway amongst large sections of the ruling elite, severely undermining the security of religious minorities and ‘non-traditional’ civil society groups. Such a scenario, if true, could lead to violent retaliations by more moderate Muslims and minority groups,adding internal conflict to an already toxic mix of economic malaise and demographic pressure.

Put simply, sectarian bloodshed seems on the cards. With IS willing to delegate its barbarous mandate to local militant groups, Bangladesh stands as a perfect candidate for the next wave of civil war in Asia.

The government has to react before it’s too late. Whether its leaders have the inclination, the political capital, or the moral capacity to rise to the challenge remains to be seen, but nobody should want to be reminded of the realities of 1971.

Kerry in Landmark Hiroshima Visit: Lesson for China as US-Japan Relationship Shines

John Kerry has become the first US Secretary of State to visit the Hiroshima Peace Park memorial in Japan, which commemorates the approximately 140,000 people killed when the Enola Gay became the first aircraft to drop an atomic bomb against a human target.

Hiroshima in ruins
Hiroshima in ruins

The decision of Harry Truman and his commanders to launch ‘Little Boy’ from the hold of the Boeing B-29 Superfortress on the 6th August 1945 has remained one of the most controversial turning points in history.  The Americans – and their allies – saw the deployment of the atomic weapon as the only way to force Tokyo to surrender, a concept completely anathema to Japanese culture.  Others decried the devastation of a city and the deaths of so many innocent civilians.

There has been an almost respectful quiet between Tokyo and Washington over the atomic bombings of both Hiroshima and Nagasaki – which took place on the 9th August 1945 and resulted in some 50,000 civilian deaths – since WWII.  The Americans have been careful not to act in any way that would signal an apology for what they deemed a necessary, if tragic, act of war.  The Japanese, meanwhile, have generally not followed the Chinese example of demanding unending apologies for wartime aggression. 

The Eisenhowers welcome Crown Prince Akihito and his wife Michiko to the White House
The Eisenhowers welcome Crown Prince Akihito and his wife Michiko to the White House

Of course, Japan was heavily-reliant on the USA post-WWII for its reconstruction and economic redevelopment, as well as its security and reintegration into the international community. It has therefore not been in the interests of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – the almost perpetual rulers of post-War Japan – to antagonise the Americans by demanding an apology for Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Rather, the spectre of the atomic bombings has created a positive bind in US-Japanese relations, whereby both countries are committed to preventing any similar event from occurring again.  Indeed, Japan is probably the staunchest non-proliferation state in the world, and the USA has made it a primary focus of its foreign policy to prevent nuclear proliferation, particularly with regards to so-called ‘rogue states’ such as Iran and North Korea.

Kerry’s visit is therefore unlikely to have any significant impact on policy, and is rather just another symbolic gesture proffered by the Obama administration during its final days in office.  Indeed, reports suggest that the President himself may visit Hiroshima next month.

Whereas the legacy of WWII has created an almost impenetrable barrier for normalising Sino-Japanese relations, it has ironically served as a platform for creating the most enduring alliance in the Asia-Pacific; the Japan-US relationship.  Despite fighting some of the most bloody battles in modern history and wreaking almost untold devastation on each other, Tokyo and Washington have adopted a pragmatic approach to reconciliation that is a testament to their responsible, global leadership. Mr Kerry’s visit will only serve to reinforce this view.

Japan was forced into a humiliating surrender after the atomic bombings, yet this has not prevented the development of positive contemporary alliance with the USA
Japan was forced into a humiliating surrender after the atomic bombings, yet this has not prevented the development of positive contemporary alliance with the USA

Whilst the atrocities of the past should never be overlooked – and Japan has apologised for the behaviour of its troops in China between 1937 and 1945 whatever Beijing might say – China needs to be similarly mature if it is to equate its economic might with diplomatic ascendancy, thereby elevating itself to become a true ‘global leader’, which at the moment it cannot be considered.