Reform Remains an Ill-Fated Word in China: but it cannot be ignored forever

On Wednesday, some of China’s most prominent scholars, activists and journalists published an open letter calling for the government to implement political and social reforms. In particular, the letter called for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. This follows on from a similar letter written several months ago, in which pressure was applied on the government to adopt democratic reforms, including the creation of an independent judiciary.

It appears as though the world is taking an interminably long pause as it waits for China to change. Whilst economic growth has remained high over the past two decades, arguments against implementing political reforms have been easy to formulate. A strong, authoritarian state breeds rising living standards; end of discussion. At the same time, no mass movement calling for change has been witnessed since the fateful events at Tiananmen Square in 1989.

Since Tiananmen Square, there has been no mass movement for reform in China
Since Tiananmen Square, there has been no mass movement for reform in China

China’s government has always appeared anathema to reform, conservative in the strictest sense. Think of the years of economic failure endured under Mao Tse-Tung when the CCP hierarchy plowed stubbornly forward with their backward policies, masking disappointment with aggressive propaganda. Deng Xiaoping’s “opening up” of the economy in the 1980s was long overdue and testament to the typical conservatism at the highest level of government in Beijing.

As the Tiananmen Square protests showed, and countless other small-scale regional uprisings in recent years have reinforced, the CCP thinks little of popular pressure. Even reformist tendencies at the highest level tend to be ignored unless supported by a majority. Such are the trappings of a non-democratic system. Having said that, the CCP would do well to learn from the past and realise that persistent opposition to change can lead to disaster.

In 1898, the Guangxu Emperor, ruler of the Qing Dynasty, attempted to implement a series of political, economic and cultural reforms to modernise the archaic imperial state. After 104 days, Guangxu and his few supporters in government were sidelined by a coup d’etat led by his aunt, the Empress Dowager Cixi. At a time when reform was essential to preserve the imperial dynasty into the twentieth century, the conservatism of those in power, including the military, effectively set the seal on the Qing’s decline.

Empress Cixi retained a belief in the traditions of the Qing, something shared by China's military
Empress Cixi retained a belief in the traditions of the Qing, something shared by China’s military

By the time the last emperor, Puyi, ascended the imperial throne in 1908, the Qing Dynasty was dead. Preserving outdated policies and a belief system of absolutism eradicated from Europe centuries before, the Qing were out of touch and Puyi was effectively held a prisoner in the Forbidden City, as a succession of warlords fought for control of China.

Even after a “century of shame”, in which the imperial powers of Europe had humiliated China through opium wars and unfair trade negotiations, and shortly after the country’s humiliating defeat to Japan in the Sino-Japanese War, reform had been avoided. The subsequent collapse of the Qing had become inevitable.

Similar parallels can also be drawn with the “Gang of Four”, the brains behind the Cultural Revolution, which sought to preserve the Maoist dictatorship at the expense of government reform, and whose ultimate demise was inevitable after Mao’s death and Deng’s rise.

The CCP is by no means in a similar decline to the Qing, or as isolated as the “Gang of Four”, and whilst economic growth remains steady its leadership should not face a severe challenge to its rule. Nevertheless, for the Chinese population to continue to tolerate one-party rule – in an era when many of its youth are being educated in the West and have access to social networking sites that provide more than the state-sanctioned news – the CCP will need to change.

The very fact that yesterday’s letter was published openly is a sign that the government’s thought police are slipping. Such publications would have been unthinkable in recent years. Continuing to promise reform and then hoping to hide behind economic growth is not a sustainable platform for future government. A time will come when popular sentiment for reform begins to gain momentum. Either that, or the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – so important to China’s stability – could force the government’s hand as a preemptive measure against a popular uprising. The CCP has the opportunity to implement reform voluntarily, on its terms, and forgo the possibility of forced action in the future.

But as has typified China’s long history, its leaders often wait just that bit too long.

The PLA may ultimately hold the balance of power between government and the reform movement
The PLA may ultimately hold the balance of power between government and the reform movement

The Woe of Damascus: from Islamic Masterpiece to Hellish Warzone

Damascus has become synonymous with suffering, misery and evil. The greatest bastion of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, this great capital has been subjected to waves of offensives and counter-offensives since the Syrian Civil War began in March 2011. One of the greatest tragedies of the war is the widespread destruction of many parts of the once opulent city. The contrast between contemporary Damascus and its glorious past are illuminated by a recent New York Times article and an account by the great 14th century Moroccan explorer Ibn Battuta.

Here is how Anne Barnard and a New York Times colleague in Syria described Damascus on 10th February 2013:

Soldiers have swept through city neighborhoods, making arrests ahead of a threatened rebel advance downtown, even as opposition fighters edge past the city limits, carrying mortars and shelling security buildings. Fighter jets that pounded the suburbs for months have begun to strike Jobar, an outlying neighborhood of Damascus proper, creating the disturbing spectacle of a government’s bombing its own capital.

Swathes of Damascus lie in ruins. Its historic centre becomes increasingly threatened
Swathes of Damascus lie in ruins. Its historic centre becomes increasingly threatened

For months, this ancient city has been hunched in a defensive crouch as fighting raged in suburbs that curve around the city’s south and east. On the western edge of the city, the palace of the embattled president, Bashar al-Assad, sits on a steep, well-defended ridge.

In between, Damascus, with its walled Old City, grand diagonal avenues and crowded working-class districts, has remained the eye of the storm. People keep going to work, even as electric service grows sporadic and groceries dwindle, even as the road to the airport is often cut off by fighting outside the city, and even as smoke from artillery and airstrikes in suburbs becomes a regular feature on the horizon.

Near the Qadam railway station last week, many of the government soldiers, their hair and beards untrimmed, wore disheveled or dirty uniforms and smelled as if they had not had showers in a long time. Some soldiers and security officers even appeared drunk, walking unsteadily with their weapons askew — a shocking sight in Syria, where regimented security forces and smartly uniformed officers have long been presented as a symbol of national pride.

Soldiers on both sides engage in undisciplined drunkeness
Soldiers on both sides engage in undisciplined drunkeness

Unkempt government soldiers, some appearing drunk, have been deployed near a rebel-held railway station in the southern reaches of this tense capital. Office workers on 29th of May Street, in the heart of the city, tell of huddling at their desks, trapped inside for hours by gun battles that sound alarmingly close.

Shells and airstrikes kept raining on the neighborhood, sending dust and smoke into the air, higher than the minarets on its mosques.

What is particularly notable about this vivid description is how the increasingly disheveled appearance of Damascus is matched by the appearance of its citizenry. The capital, once a symbol of pride, has become something stained and pitiful. People cower in fear amid their ruined citadel. Spirals of smoke climb higher than the gorgeous minarets that once ruled the skyline unchallenged, serving as a poignant metaphor for Damascus’ decline.

Ibn Battuta had a different experience when he visited Damascus as a young man in 1326. An important trading hub at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, Damascus had a population of over 100,000 by the beginning of the 14th century. Even though it had become a vassal state of the Egyptian-based Mamluk Empire, it retained a degree of independence and was a renowned centre of Islamic scholarship.

Ibn Battuta was the medieval world's most extensive traveller
Ibn Battuta was the medieval world’s most extensive traveller

Ibn Battuta wrote:

As for Damascus, she is the Paradise of the Orient, and dawning-place of her resplendent light, the seal of the Islamic lands which we have explored, and the bride of the cities which we have unveiled. She hath adorned herself with flowers of sweet-scented herbs, and displayed herself in brocaded vestures from her gardens; she hath occupied an assured position in the site of beauty, and hath decked herself in her bridal chair with fairest adornment. She is ennobled by the fact that God Most High gave a refuge to the Messiah [Jesus] (upon Him be peace) and His Mother [Mary] in it… Her soil is sated with abundant water … and places cry to thee ‘Stamp thy foot; here is a cool spring for thee to wash thyself and to drink’.

He described the 8th century Umayyad Mosque at the city’s centre as:

the greatest mosque on earth …, the most perfect in architecture, and the most exquisite in beauty…In this mosque also there are a great many students who never leave it, occupying themselves unremittingly in prayer and recitation of the Koran . . . The townsfolk supply their needs of food and clothing, although students never beg for anything of the kind from them.

The Umayyad Mosque retains its splendor but for how long?
The Umayyad Mosque retains its splendor but for how long?

As for the citizens of Damascus:

All strangers amongst them are handsomely treated and care is taken that they are not forced to any action that might injure their self-respect. The variety and expenditure of the religious endowments at Damascus are beyond computation. There are endowments in aid of persons who cannot undertake the pilgrimage to Mecca, out of which are paid the expenses of those who go in their stead. There are other endowments for supplying wedding outfits to girls whose families are unable to provide them, and others for the freeing of prisoners. There are endowments for travellers, out of the revenues of which they are given food, clothing, and the expenses of conveyance to their countries.

Damascus' citizens were described as generous, pious and intelligent
Damascus’ citizens were described as generous, pious and intelligent

Such descriptions seem almost paradisical, with the wonders of the city matched by the benevolence of the populace. The city’s appearance of grandeur is certainly a far cry from the scenes so evident some 780 years later.

It is fortunate that Damascus’ ancient centre remains relatively intact yet its status as a UNESCO world heritage site will not protect it forever. Whilst the human suffering of the Syrian people has rightly dominated world news, the threat to the country’s historical and cultural treasures is almost equally concerning. Their destruction would break the link between Syria’s present and past, a crucial component of national identity, something the Syrian people will have to strive to regain if they can ever free themselves from their perpetual struggle.

References:

  • ‘Damascus on Edge as War Seeps into Syrian Capital’, Anne Barnard
  • ‘The Travels of Ibn Battuta’, H A R Gibb (ed.)

What Price for Peace in DR Congo? Stability and Destabilisation Under Mobutu

Eleven African countries have signed a new peace agreement in Addis Ababa determined to end the persistent conflict that has blighted the development of the Democratic Republic of the Congo for decades. The agreement has been welcomed with caution, with international observers fully appreciative of the challenges involved in bringing peace to a vast nation with unsecured borders, factional and ethnic division, a desperate economy and a bitter colonial legacy.

Its vast size makes the DR Congo a difficult nation to bring to peace
Its vast size makes the DR Congo a difficult nation to bring to peace

It is difficult to imagine a time when DR Congo was relatively secure and stable. Under colonisation – first as the Congo Free State (1885-1908), a personal fiefdom of King Leopold II of Belgium, and then as the Belgian Congo (1908-1960) – the country was mercilessly plundered by European overlords notoriously brutal in their character.

Mutilation was a frequent punishment in Belgian Congo, one of history's most brutal colonial regimes
Mutilation was a frequent punishment in Belgian Congo, one of history’s most brutal colonial regimes

On gaining independence, Patrice Lumumba was elected as the country’s first democratic Prime Minister, only to be imprisoned and executed within twelve weeks of his coming to power (with the support of the former Belgian colonial authorities and the US government).

What followed over the course of the next six years has come to be known as the Congo Crisis. A variety of factions sought to take control of the country, including Belgian-backed Katangan separatists and a patchwork of communist groups supported by regional leftist mercenaries. The group which won out, however, was the American-backed faction led by Joseph Mobutu. When Mobutu took head office in November 1965 he orchestrated a ruthless purge of all his remaining opponents and centralised power around himself, using fierce rhetoric and a carefully-designed cult of personality to give credence to his populist rule.

Mobutu’s rule (from 1965 until shortly before his death in 1997) is widely acknowledged as one of the most corrupt and brutal dictatorships in African history, a continent renowned for its kleptomaniacal leaders. Renaming the country Zaire in 1971, adopting the African name Sese Seko, and frequently sporting his trademark leopard-skin hat at as a way to distance the Congolese from their colonial past, Mobutu’s premiership was as bizarre as it was frightening.

Mobutu's overarching goal (besides wealth accumulation) was the "Africanisation" of DR Congo
Mobutu’s overarching goal (besides wealth accumulation) was the “Africanisation” of DR Congo

Nevertheless, British Foreign Office documents suggest that Mobutu’s rule could have turned out very differently and that, indeed, it had made a promising start. A diplomatic cable dated August 1968 declares Mobutu “as good a Head of State as can be found in the Congo”. It goes on to mention his success in ousting his final internal rivals, including Rwandan mercenaries who even today cause constant security threats to the DR Congo with their incursions across the eastern border.

In conclusion, the report states that “the Congo is sufficiently stable to honour large-scale commercial commitments”. This is the crux of the matter, today as it was then. DR Congo is an enormously resource-rich country, with vast mineral deposits, potential for hydroelectric power development and fertile agricultural land. Without taking a too cynical viewpoint, international mediators want peace for the DR Congo as much for themselves as the Congolese people.

Despite the optimism of the British report, the illusion of stability under Mobutu soon melted away as he began to horde wealth for himself and plunged his people into a miserable existence of poverty and fear. As the British author acknowledged, support for Mobutu in 1965 had been based on the premise that DR Congo would “return in time to some form of orthodox democracy adapted to Bantu needs…There was, however, some disillusionment on this score when a few weeks later Mobutu announced that the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies had been dissolved and that he would rule by decree for a period of five years”.

It is often necessary for an undeveloped, post-colonial country to experience a period of authoritarian rule in order to put in place the economic framework needed for development. This has been seen in many East Asian countries, such as South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia, where democracy has gradually followed strongman rule. Unfortunately, this pattern of development was never likely under Mobutu. Whilst he provided the short-term stability necessary to implement the economic changes that would revolutionise his country, he was ultimately uninterested in anyone’s fate but his own.

Mobutu’s overthrow in May 1997, just months before his death, came too late. DR Congo was already riven by regional factions, each determined to take advantage of the lawlessness that had pervaded vast swathes of the country outside the capital Kinshasa.

It is a case, therefore, of what might have been. DR Congo could have been a shining light for the world’s least developed continent. Now, it is arguably its most troubling security dilemma, a monster that has sucked in participants from neighbouring countries and created wretched living conditions for a traumatised and uneducated population ruled by the law of the gun.

It will be a miracle if the latest peace agreement succeeds. Even today, rival factions clashed on the Congo’s eastern border. The omens are not good.